Tag Archives: scenarios

Lights Out III: Student Update on Exercise

3 Apr

Penn State researchers work closely with students. The Lights Out game scenario is one example of this interaction between researchers and students in the College of Information Sciences and Technology. Here’s the idea: What would you do if you were a community leader and your town was knocked off the grid? This is the third edition in a series of student-written posts about their participation in this capstone course. In the future, we’ll feature more posts from the students as they progress through the Lights Out scenario. To learn more, check out some background information about the course in this post.

McCracken

As far as sandwiches go, this one was pretty bad.

I sat on a rock by the side of the road.  I was only about a half-mile from town, but didn’t feel like answering any questions from passersby while I lunched on a beef jerky, mustard, and celery sandwich.  It was what I’d had in the fridge when this whole thing started.  This damned power outage.

It’s been two days since everything died.  On the whole, I couldn’t complain about the response from the town.  We had good leadership who could make difficult decisions quickly.  They first set up support for the elderly and people in the hospital.  That course of action alone saved a lot of lives.  They also began to immediately try to get a head-count of everyone in town.  The town Police and the Fire Company were keeping track of any reports of missing people and organizing searches.  As for myself, I was a messenger.

Messengers were among the first groups to be set up.  The Municipal Manager wanted to establish the extent of the power outage, and to see how the Amish and people in different parts of the village were reacting.  Messengers were given bicycles and sent to different parts of town to deliver messages and to take messages from one part of town to the other.  A good idea, I thought.  It wasn’t as good as a phone, but it at least gave people some form of communication.

As I sat eating, I was distinctly aware of the weight of the .38 in my pocket.  When I was younger, it was important to me that I got a pistol and conceal-carry permit.  Upon settling down in McCracken it didn’t matter as much.  The crime rate in a village such as McCracken was next to nothing.  Now, though, I was glad to have it.  Rumor was that shortly after the power went out there were scared citizens trying to force their way into the gun shop.  In a time of crisis, it isn’t evil people that we must fear most.  It’s the scared ones that’ll kill you.

I finished my sandwich and stood.  My bicycle, a 21-speed Diamondback, was leaning against a nearby tree.  I had a few messages for the town leaders from the Amish community.  That had been my assignment that morning: to deliver and collect messages from the Amish.  They didn’t seem to have too much to say regarding the power outage.  Not to me, at least.  I got on the bike and pedaled toward town.  They wanted me to be back before 1:00.  They’d have another task for me then.

I delivered my notes to the Sheriff.  At the moment, the Municipal Manager and Town Leadership Committee were behind closed doors discussing courses of action.  Word was they’d soon open volunteer positions for local leadership positions regarding things like providing shelter and rationing.  When the positions opened, I’d try to get one.  For now, though, I’ll stick with my job as a messenger.

After making my delivery, I rode to the firehouse.  The Fire Chief had just returned from a search for a local kindergartener.  The boy had gotten lost south of the school. “How’d it go, Chief?” I asked.  We hadn’t been close friends before this crisis, but he ran the messengers as part of his duties and seemed to trust me with some of the more important tasks.  The first message collection trip he’d given me had been to the hospital.

“He’s with his family now.  Found him in a tree.  We gave him some crackers and got him home fine.  You finish that Amish run?”

I nodded.  “All letters were delivered to the Sheriff.”

The Chief grunted approvingly.  “I said I’d have another run for you when you got back, but Ben got back from WECO Fairgrounds early so I sent him instead.  The Amish run is a long one, anyway.  There are no more runs for you today.  Head home if you want.  That’d be helpful, actually.  I want someone I trust to be in your part of town.  We had to handle a grassfire at a house two doors away from you earlier, and some of your neighbors got a bit worked up about it.  They might benefit from a visit from you.”

I shrugged.  “I’ll go home then.  You’ll know where to find me.  I’ll come by tomorrow morning for another run.”

“I’ll be here,” he said.

As I rode home I kept glancing up at the sky.  I didn’t mention it to anyone yet, but I haven’t seen either a plane or contrails in the sky for two days.  It had been sunny and clear ever since the power outage, but there was no evidence of aircraft.  The planes at our local airport wouldn’t start, just like nobody’s vehicle worked.  Surely, though, the power couldn’t be out everywhere.  That was unthinkable.

Longview    
It has been a week since the lights went out, I’m still not entirely sure what happened or when they’re going to come back on. I’ve been trying to balance taking care of my family with increasing demands as a result of the power outage, but this is proving to be very challenging. My kids spent the first night stuck at the school, thankfully their teachers and principal kept them occupied and looked after everyone. The morning after and the next day a couple of community members were able to bring a bunch of the kids into town from the school in horse drawn wagons. Thankfully, my kids were in one of these wagons and are now home with their father.

As if the lights going out weren’t enough of a problem, we the community leaders, have also had to deal with a number of reports of safety and security problems around town. The first night reports kept coming in that several of the industrial facilities were at critical levels and might explode. Thankfully, technicians were able to deal with these problems, and things seem to be stable for now. We’ve also had to deal with reports that groups of people have been wondering through town looting abandoned cars. I’m not really sure what we should do. We don’t have the manpower right now to stop this.

Given the multitude of problems facing Longview, the Mayor tasked me and the four other community leaders with developing an action plan. We needed to figure out what’s most critical and how to address it. The major wanted to know who our most at risk people are and what were going to do to help them. He also wanted us to start thinking about what the community needs to survive since the power doesn’t seem like its going to come back on soon.

We spent most of the past few days trying to track down old reports and maps of Longview to complete this plan, but the real help has been volunteers coming into the office with reports about what’s going on. We all soon realized that information was the most valuable thing right now. We talked about ways of sharing information with the community and decided that putting information out was the best way to relieve some of the fear people are experiencing. We’ve had volunteers go around town and let everyone know to check the Tavern’s for information as we plan on either posting information or having someone keep everyone informed.

We’ve still got a lot of problems to address. Most of the kids are back, but we need to get them to their parents, many of which are out of town. Our large elderly population in the community and residing at the elderly care facility is also concern. Without power those that require substantial medical care are not going to get help. Thankfully, families have been visiting and attempting to take care of their relatives, but we still have a large number of elderly with not relations. We need to find a way to help as many as we’re able.

Food and supplies seem to be okay at the moment, but all the community leaders agree, this is going to be significant problem very soon. A lot of us thought the power was going to come back on in a day or so, but ‘this event’ is proving to be bigger and more widespread than we expected. We’ve came up with an action list for the Mayor but now it’s up to him to decide what we do next. I’m glad that my family is at home and safe for the moment, but I’m starting to get really worried about what’s going to come next.

Smithville Blog

“It’s been nearly a week since the lights went out. In the first 24 hours people were in denial, some even looked at the “event” as we’re come to call it as a break from the monotony of everyday life. Lots of folks went to bars to party, others pulled out their grills and had impromptu BBQs inviting people off the street (many times they were the strangers who had wondered in from the road). It was one big party in downtown Smithville. The reverie lasted about two days before people began to realize this was not just a transient thing; that things would get much worse before they got better.

For me and a small group of planners, we didn’t even have two days…as members of the Mayor’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Task Force we were given our marching orders. The mayor told us to get our own houses in order then come back to work to address the city’s issues. A few members of the EOC never made it home that first night. Without transportation, if you lived outside town, you simply had no way of getting there. I was more fortunate and for me it was only may cat that I had to worry about. I jogged the three mile home to my apartment and knowing I might not be back for several days, turned kitty loose. She was a barn cat to begin with; I knew she would survive.

I didn’t stay long in my apartment. I grabbed a few personal items, packed some clothes and packed as many water bottles as I could carry, then turned around and headed back toward city hall. I decide to walk back, taking a circuitous route through a maze of stalled vehicles. I wanted to survey the streets all while contemplating the list of issues we were going to face. With everything I had on my mind, I just couldn’t help thinking, “What are these people going to do, when the party stops…”

I was not the first person back. Those who never left (either they had no one to go home to or no way of getting there) were already at work. The Mayor left us with a set of things to address, but the first we needed to do was to get organized by: defining the chain of command, devising a communication plan and assigning roles within the team (so to not duplicate effort).

And then the real work began. We were told to “take stock” – of the big things first and the most critical; saving lives first; then preservation of assets, and only then look toward recovery. We were to approach this as a crisis.

To begin with, we knew we had folks out there in a bad way, some would not make it through the night let alone a week. We needed to identify those in most need. BUT we also needed to triage our problems. Some could not be saved – the critically ill, non-ambulatory and those dependent on medical devices to live. There are many others, however that could and should be saved, the very young, especially those whose parents were caught out of town.

Someone found a paper copy (rare but true) of a SWOT Analysis that was conducted on Weaver County in 2024. This turned out to be a good framework to view our situation. We started to look at our situation from four points of view:  Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Risk.

We’ve been at it now for several days and we still have a LOT of work to do to figure out how to deal with this crisis. But we are making small strides. For my part, I was tasked with dealing with the young and very old. I gathered volunteers to survey the hospitals, elderly care facilities and all of the schools and all of the day care centers in town. Getting kids home or cared for was priority number one for me…dealing with folks on the other end of the continuum was second.

We had better luck with the kids than we did the elderly and sick. We lost some 200 folks in the first two days alone (probably more). By day two, critical care staffs were few and far between. Many of the dead were simply left in place, Since then we have established up a mortuary service (actually several location have been established since transportation continues to be an issue).

The partying has not stopped for some folks and lawlessness is becoming more of an issue as folks run out of essentials. The first flash mobs emerged at dawn on day three. I think everyone had the same idea – get to the supermarket, gas station, food bank, convenient store or any other place than held significant food and water. The partyers went for the booze and several shooting incidents at downtown bars resulted. Families are being preyed upon and several incidents of robbery have been reported. We are just seeing the opening salvo…the Mayor has already started a new checklist of things to address. Law and Order at the top of that list.

In the meantime, we are continuing our SWOT analysis and will brief the Mayor in the morning…no one will sleep tonight.”

Lights Out II: More Students Blog About Situation

14 Mar

What would you do if you were a community leader and your town was knocked off the grid? This is the focus of an IST Security and Risk Analysis Capstone course. This is the second edition in a series of student-written posts about their participation in this capstone course. In the future, we’ll feature more posts from the students as they progress through the Lights Out scenario. You can read the other student blog post, or check out some background information about the course in this post.

Here’s the situation:

The country has received a direct hit of a solar event called a coronal mass ejection. It’s bad news. There are three communities — Smithville, McCracken, and Longview — that the students are attempting to lead back into the 21st century in this Analytic Decision Game.

McCracken

Day 1:
The power went out in McCracken.  At first I thought it was just my block, but I found that it was the entire town.  The weird thing though is this: nothing works.  My phone was at half battery, but it appears dead now.  My laptop was charging in my bedroom when the power cut out.  It’s dead, too.  I even dug up two two-way radios from the mess on the floor of my closet. Dead.
I was one of the last of the neighborhood to go outside.  Everyone who was home was out talking with the neighbors.  Their power was out, too.  Many were clutching their cell phones, holding them higher as if a slight change in altitude would yield some sign of life.  My own phone stayed in my pocket.
Will, from next door, opened the door to his van.  He would take a group to the town hall and see what was going on.  That mission was quickly abandoned.  The van wouldn’t start.  I went to my own Audi and tried the key.  Nothing.  I popped the hood and looked at the engine.  Nothing seemed out-of-place, but I’ll be the first to admit I know nothing about engines.
All along the street people were checking their cars.  Wendy was the first to cry.  Her car, a Subaru, had been bought a week prior.  Once we determined the cars wouldn’t start we began to migrate towards town hall.  I was among the first to leave, but soon there was a fairly large procession of confused and upset citizens.
We picked up several people on our way.  The offices and shops had emptied out.  Some farmers were beginning to trickle in from their fields.  There was already quite a crowd around town hall. I tried to push my way to the front, but ended up squeezed between the local librarian and another man I didn’t know.
After a short while, the Municipal Manager came out and stood on a stack of pallets and held his arms up for silence.
“Ladies and gentlemen, settle down,” he shouted.  “The power in town has gone out, but we’re working to get it back on and we can continue our workday soon.”  This comment blatantly ignored the fact any battery-operated devices were out as well, but he pressed on anyway.
“We’re working now to ensure the safety of those in the hospital and the retirement home.  If you all could please disperse.  Go to a neighbor’s house and wait there.  We’ll let you know if there are any changes.  What we need right now are level heads, clear streets, and willing volunteers.”
I didn’t care to hear the rest.  I turned away and pushed back through the crowd.  Matt would be around here somewhere, and he kept a few cold ones in his basement for when he had company.  I’d find him and wait this out.
As for the rest of the crowd, they were shouting about various things- mostly about their cars.  They were demanding answers that the Municipal Manager clearly didn’t have.  Others were leaving as well, seeing the same futility of asking questions that I saw.  The fire chief was off to one side of the crowd, standing next to a bike rack.  He was talking to a circle of people.  They were all looking down at a single sheet of paper.  I guessed it was some sort of crudely-drawn map of McCracken.  They’d probably send cyclists out to see what was going on all across town and if anyone knew anything.
Let them do whatever they want to.  I’ll wait this out.  A power outage was nothing new, even if all electronics were out.  A sun flare or solar storm, perhaps?  I hadn’t heard anyone mention “terrorism” or “war” yet.  Nobody wanted to consider either of those possibilities.
As I moved down the street I shrugged to myself.  If this was a terrorist attack or a first-strike of the next war, I’d better get some rest.  Soon, things would get worse.

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Lights Out! Students Report on How They’re Facing the Apocalypse

28 Feb
An analytic decision game underway in Penn State's College of Information Sciences and Technology is pitting students against a massive natural disaster.

An analytic decision game underway in Penn State’s College of Information Sciences and Technology is pitting students against a massive natural disaster.

In a recent blog post, we talked about Penn State College of Information Sciences and Technology Professor of Practice Col. Jake Graham’s  Security and Risk Analysis Capstone course (SRA 440W). Students in the class face what Graham calls the “Lights Out” scenario.

Here’s the situation:

The country has received a direct hit of a solar event called a coronal mass ejection. It’s bad news. There are three communities — Smithville, McCracken, and Longview — that the students are attempting to lead back into the 21st century in this Analytic Decision Game.

According to our student bloggers from Team Smithville:

Coronal mass ejections (CME) are bursts of solar plasma erupting from the sun’s corona. These outbursts are capable of releasing huge quantities of matter and electromagnetic radiation into space above the sun’s surface and hurling the solar wind toward earth. CME is associated with enormous changes and disturbances in the coronal magnetic field. A large enough CME event is capable of shutting down the electrical grid and destroying all digital electronics in its path.

Our scenario is set in rural America in the year 2025. Up until now our lives have been overwhelmingly influenced by digital technology and a dependence on electricity. Then, inextricably, the lights go out. Our fictional post-cyber society community has been frozen in time. Automobiles, trains and aircraft cease to operate. The power grid has failed. All unshielded digital electronics have been fried and what remains of our military and government infrastructure is unknown. Our struggle is not in restoring the internet – our struggle is for the survival the nation and of our way of life!

Team Smithville observations:

The lights have now gone out in the Borough of Smithville. All electrical equipment and cars are unusable, thought to be the result of a sort of electro-magnetic pulse. Our team, representing Smithville, has been discussing duties of the community leaders and a chain of command.

We spent a considerable amount of time studying the maps of Smithville, Weaver County, and the other towns of Longview and McCracken.

As the Smithville leadership, we are trying to come up with a list of our most valuable resources and assets. Similarly, we have been looking for areas or buildings that could serve a purpose during this blackout. Using the booklet of the history of Weaver County has proved to be quite useful, as there are certain sites or activities described there that have given us some good ideas to pursue. We are working under the assumption that each town will work alone and put its own interests first.

Therefore, we are going to focus on the resources and tools we can gather from our immediate area so we do not need to rely on help from other towns. We are wary of the residents of other towns and are considering them a threat for the time being.

Our geographic location may put us at risk because Smithville is located between the towns of Longview and McCracken. For the time being, the Mayor and Chief of Police are trying to keep order and calm the masses.

This is the first in a series of student-written posts about their participation in this capstone course. In the future, we’ll feature more posts from the students as they progress through the Lights Out scenario.

Lights Out! Penn State Students and Researchers Face the Apocalypse

21 Feb

A lot of people think that scientists and researchers spend all their days and a lot of their nights toiling away in sterile, dimly lit labs, sequestered from students and the rest of the university community. Every once and a while, they may shout “Eureka!” to an unaware, but appreciative group of students and staff as they uncover the cure for a disease or add an extra letter to a really cool-looking math equation.

That’s not how research is done at Penn State. You’ll find research and teaching are tightly woven together in a positive feedback loop here. Research inspires lessons, which inspires students, which, in turn, inspires more research.

That’s especially helpful when you face an apocalypse.

Penn State IST Professor of Practice Col. Jake Graham is leading a group of students in his Security and Risk Analysis Capstone course (SRA 440W) through an exercise that is part emergency awareness exercise and part live action role-playing game. I might add that the only thing missing from this scenario that would make it a script for a big-budget Hollywood blockbuster would be a roving band of zombies. (Maybe next semester?)

“The purpose of the SRA Capstone course, is to apply the knowledge, and skills achieved across  the Security and Risk Analysis curriculum in a culminating analytic experience to address a set of complex and dynamic security and risk phenomena,” Graham said. “This is achieved in a team-based, scenario-driven exercise — the Analytic Decision Game, or ADG.”

According to Graham, the scenario for this semester’s project is slugged “Lights Out.” Here’s the background: A solar flare fries just about every electronic device. Beyond not being able to check out the sports scores on your smart phone, it also means you won’t be able to cook, heat, drive a car and do just about everything else you’ve become accustomed to doing with modern technology. To put it crudely, the students — who are divided up into three communities, each with certain advantages and weaknesses — have become instant Amish, whether they converted to the faith or not.

“The research topic for this semester deals with the characterization of cyber-space in the year 2025,” Graham added. “The companion ADG for this semester deals with life in a post-cyber society, where students acting in leadership roles guide their respective communities through a series of cascading problems.”

Graham, who served as a Marine helicopter pilot and spent time ferrying United States presidents around in Marine 1, said that for the students in the project, the scenario raises a lot of questions. Do they cooperate with other town leaders? Do they conquer the other towns? Can they mitigate some of the catastrophic effects? Can they learn new skills and abilities to cope with the problem?

In the next few posts, we’ll hear from some of the students as they take their Penn State training, knowledge, and Brains! Brains! Brains! into the apocalypse.

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